Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe predicted to turn Conservative at general election

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The once strong Labour heartlands of Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe are at real risk of turning Conservative for the first time in generations, according to an expert in predicting general election results.

Figures produced by Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus predict an overall majority for Theresa May and the Conservatives of 158, with their number of seats increasing from 331 in 2015 to 404.

By contrast, the predictions are dismal for the Labour Party, with them forecast to lose 52 seats compared with their disappointing showing in 2015, falling to just 170, the lowest since the Second World War.

Great Grimsby, held by Labour since 1945, is one of the seats which has a strong chance of turning Conservative on June 8.

Current Labour MP Melanie Onn is defending a majority of 4,540, which is predicted to be wiped out, with the Conservatives narrowly winning by 601 votes.

Another once safe Labour seat, Scunthorpe, is also predicted to be won by the Conservatives.

The Labour Party has won every parliamentary election in the constituency since it was created in 1997.

However, Labour MP Nic Dakin is defending a majority of 3,134, well within the Conservatives’ sights if current polling plays out as expected next month.

Martin Baxter predicts that this seat could again turn Conservative, with a majority of 2,099.

The traditional bellwether seat of Lincoln, which has an elected an MP of the party in power since 1974, is expected to remain Conservative.

The oldest constituency in the UK, which was first established in 1265, has been represented by Conservative Karl McCartney since 2010, after 13 years under Labour.

McCartney is defending a slender majority of 1,443 from 2015.

However, this is predicted to increase significantly, rising to a comfortable 6,932.

Similarly, Boston and Skegness, which will attract the interest of national media following the announcement that UKIP leader Paul Nuttall will be the party’s candidate, is predicted to become an even safer Conservative seat.

Matt Warman, who has been the constituency’s MP since 2015, is defending a majority of 4,336 from UKIP.

However, again this is forecast to rise significantly, to a majority of 13,020.

The remaining seven Conservative-held seats in the Greater Lincolnshire region are also predicted to have larger Tory majorities.

  • Andrew Percy’s majority in Brigg and Goole is set to rise from 11,176 to 16,997
  • Martin Vickers in Cleethorpes is predicted to see his majority rise from 7,893 to 14,493
  • Veteran Gainsborough MP Sir Edward Leigh’s majority is predicted to rise from 15,449 to 22,194
  • Nick Boles, standing again in Grantham and Stamford after recovering from a brain tumour, is predicted to have an increased majority, from 18,989 to 26,610
  • Victoria Atkins, defending a majority of 14,977 in Louth and Horncastle, is predicted to have a majority of 24,105
  • Sleaford and North Hykeham, which had a Conservative majority of 24,115 in 2015, is set to elect Caroline Johnson with an estimated majority of 31,369
  • John Hayes in South Holland and the Deepings is predicted to see his majority rise from 18,567 to 28,264

Electoral Calculus is an independent website which provides analysis, comment and predictions of general elections, polls and democracy.

It is run by Martin Baxter, and is the longest-running predictor of UK general elections.

The figures quoted in this article are accurate as of May 3.

The predictor is not meant to definitively state what the results will be on June 8, but give an indication of what they are likely to be based on the data and information available at present.

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